City ended their drought with a decisive 6-0 victory over Ipswich, snapping Guardiola’s bleak spell of losses and draws. The last time the Blues met the Citizens was in the season opener, where City earned their first three points of the campaign with a 2-0 victory, thanks to goals from Haaland and Kovacic.

However, things have settled at Chelsea since then, with Maresca’s system gaining traction and cohesion. This game will be an excellent test to see just how far Chelsea has grown this season. Chelsea’s last win at Etihad was a 1-0 victory in the Champions League final of 2021.

What’s at Stake Here?

Neither team is currently aiming for the title at this point in the season. Liverpool are at least 10 points ahead of both Chelsea and City, and they also have a postponed game against Everton, which will likely result in an additional three points for Arne Slot’s team. They are currently trailed by Arsenal and Nottingham Forest, and the OPTA Supercomputer grants them the title in 92% of its simulations.

Although the race for the title is probably no longer within reach for these two teams—or at least it seems like an unachievable target—a finish in the top 4 definitely is. Aston Villa, Bournemouth, and Newcastle are sitting just below the Champions League line and are hoping to climb back into those favorable spots.

Newcastle faces Southampton this round, which is likely to result in three points for the Magpies. As a result, Chelsea needs a win to maintain their position comfortably in the Champions League spots. Of course, Manchester City will look to do the same and push forward with the momentum from their 6-0 win.

How Things Have Changed

Both Chelsea and Manchester City aim to control the game and hug the ball as much as possible. Last time, the two teams shared possession, with City having a slight edge of 2% but Chelsea’s chances were more qualitative — 1.01 generated xG compared to City’s 0.77. Yet the Blues lacked a clinical edge to convert.

What is interesting to note is how much Chelsea’s structure has changed since then. Back then, Enzo Fernandez played as a number 10 behind Nicolas Jackson, instead of a pivot alongside Caicedo, with Cole Palmer taking the right wing and Nkunku the left one. A big problem that Enzo Maresca has to solve for this game is deploying a solid midfield structure. Chelsea has looked at their most balanced when Romeo Lavia has played alongside Moises Caicedo. With Lavia out because of injury, Maresca has little to no options. Dewsbury-Hall is definitely not Maresca’s first choice, while Casadei and Veiga have seen extremely limited minutes outside the Conference League.

Manchester City is notorious for building and attacking through the middle with 69% of their shots coming from central areas, compared to Chelsea’s 63%. In the opening game of the season, Guardiola used a sneaky trick to counter Chelsea’s 4-2-4 pressing shape by pulling Kevin De Bruyne from midfield and into the wider areas. This created a bit of confusion about who marked him in that area.

Chelsea attempted to overload City’s midfield with Malo Gusto inverting and creating a numerical advantage in that area, giving Cole Palmer more space and putting him in one-on-one situations. However Chelsea lacked sharpness in the final third and failed to convert.

Key Statistics - Individual Performance and Transitions

Both Chelsea and City are teams that create, and more often than not, through individual performance. Manchester City has been a bit more clinical, with an xG difference of -1.88 compared to Chelsea’s -3.96. Both teams share similar statistical profiles, as expected for two managers with similar philosophies.

However, one big issue that Manchester City could pose is the intensity and efficiency of their pressing. The Citizens are efficient in recovering the ball in the attacking third. Transition for Manchester City is equal to pressing. Absorbing that pressure will fall on Chelsea’s back line to be composed and avoid mistakes that might lead to dangerous situations, as well as resist the constant assault that Manchester City is known for. Robert Sanchez is probably a player which that pressing will target, as he made a few mistakes throughout the season by misplacing passes when under pressure.

Yet, if the Blues bypass the press and get the ball out in transition, then they will need to find efficiency in converting when in these situations. With 1.5 shots per game coming from counter attacking situations — second best record in the league — Chelsea has scored only 6 times with this approach. Another area where Manchester City is vulnerable is down the wings, but Chelsea also struggles in this area, as there is no box number 9 to be at the end of those crosses.

To get a good result on Etihad, Chelsea will need to find efficiency in finishing the chances they create — and they create plenty, looking at the rolling xG it seems like Chelsea are overcoming their dry spell — and maintain a proper and disciplined defensive structure, and avoid unnecessary fouls in dangerous areas, or even giving away penalties.

Predictions

Manchester City is currently the favourites in this encounter. OPTA Supercomputers see them coming on top in 48.2% of simulations, while Chelsea wins in just 28.2%. Manchester City is without a defeat in the last eleven games against The Blues and has won the last three duels.

So will Chelsea grab the three points and maintain their position in the top 4 spots? Or will Manchester City continue their run after smashing through Ipswich?

By the hour mark, Cucurella put Chelsea back on top with a well timed and clever run, delivering a difficult finish to beat Jose Sa, and five minutes later, the game was sealed after another corner which saw Trevor Chalobah rising and heading it into the net. Although the goal is credited to Noni Madueke, he pushed it in, after Chalobah’s header already beat the goalkeeper.

Chelsea’s Lineup and Setup

Enzo Maresca chose a different lineup against Wolves. We have Robert Sanchez in goal and Reece James took up his spot on the right while Marc Cucurella played as left-back. This game saw the return of Trevor Chalobah to Stamford bridge, pairing up with Tosin Adarabioyo. Moises Caicedo and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall were Chelsea’s two pivots, in the absence of both Romeo Lavia and Enzo Fernandez.

Offensively, Maresca opted to start Pedro Neto on the left wing against his former team, while Noni Madueke took up the right winger role. Although Madueke has not been a consistent starter for the Blues, his performance against Wolverhampton, scoring a hat-trick at Molineux, is what might have promoted this change. Cole Palmer played a more central role, occupying the upper-central area of the pitch, while Nicolas Jackson was Chelsea’s number 9.

Chelsea in Possession

How did Chelsea look in possession and how did the Blues build-up? Against Wolverhampton, Reece James played a more traditional full-back role, sticking to the right side of the pitch, forming a back three together with Chalobah and Adarabioyo. In front of the back three, we see Moises Caicedo, sometimes helped by the inverting Marc Cucurella. Although Cucurella inverted, Moises Caicedo was more akin to a lone pivot while Cucurella inverted higher up in the pitch.

Meanwhile, Chelsea’s other pivot, Dewsbury-Hall, took Cole Palmer’s positioning on the right side of the pitch, pairing up with Noni Madueke. He mainly operated in the right half space, while Cole Palmer took more of a central role and focused on the central and left half-space, akin to what Enzo Fernandez would do in a typical game. Meanwhile, on the other side of the pitch, Pedro Neto provided width, sticking to the touchline, while Cucurella operated in the half space and attacked the box, trying to produce combinations and cutbacks.

Both Cucurella and Dewsbury-Hall advanced in the later stages of the build-up, leaving Caicedo as a lone pivot at the back, to create numerical superiority against Wolves’ back five.

Left Jab, Right Cross

The first 30 minutes saw Chelsea clearly in control of the game. After 30 minutes, the Blues enjoyed their 73.4% share of possession while limiting Wolverhampton to only one shot and a mere 7 entries into the final third. This was also because of Wolverhampton’s more passive approach, sitting in a 5-2-3 formation out of possession, without pressuring Chelsea’s build-up play.

The clear tactical pattern that emerged in the first half was the attempted isolation of Noni Madueke on the right wing, launching him into one-on-one situations with switches and long balls. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s presence in the right half-space and closer to Madueke, always threatening to cut inside, was an important rotation in drawing defenders from Madueke, preventing doubling on the right wing.

Decisive Set Pieces, Wolves Concede Twice

Although relatively successful at taking on his opponent and crossing, with a total xA of 0.4 and one successful cross out of seven attempted Noni Madueke did not score the opening goal. It came from a set piece. As I also discussed in my preview of this game, Wolverhampton is very vulnerable at set piece, being the team with the most goals conceded from such situations.

After a cross targeting the middle of the six-yard box, the ball was deflected to a completely unmarked Reece James at the edge of the penalty area. Luckily (or not…) for the Wolves, Chelsea’s captain could not shoot directly and he needed a first touch to control it. He shot in the sea of yellow shirts in the box, and it bounced towards an almost left behind Tosin Adarabioyo who smashed it in. He did not rush to celebrate as he believed he was offside and the flag was raised, but after a VAR review, he was concluded to be just onside.

After a cross targeting the middle of the six-yard box, the ball was deflected to a completely unmarked Reece James at the edge of the penalty area. Luckily (or not…) for the Wolves, Chelsea’s captain could not shoot directly and he needed a first touch to control it. He shot in the sea of yellow shirts in the box, and it bounced towards an almost left behind Tosin Adarabioyo who smashed it in. He did not rush to celebrate as he believed he was offside and the flag was raised, but after a VAR review, he was concluded to be just onside.

The last goal also came from a set piece. It was an indirect free kick, just a few feet in front of the corner spot. Cole Palmer crossed it towards the far post, where Trevor Chalobah easily slipped unmarked. He jumped over Nélson Semedo to put in a header and beat Jose Sa. Noni Madueke pushed the ball when it was just in front of the goal line, claiming it on the scoreboard, leaving Chalobah with an assist, yet it was Trevor who won his duel with Semedo.

Although Chelsea is by no means a set-piece powerhouse, having scored only six times from set pieces, and two of those goals were direct free kicks taken by Palmer and Reece James, Wolverhanpton’s poor defending in these scenarios gave Chelsea a 33% bump in this statistic.

Who Needs Strikers Anyways?

It was a quiet game for Nicolas Jackson, who had two shots, marking the beginning and the end of the game. Chelsea’s struggles somewhat started when Nicolas Jackson stopped scoring consistently, hence Enzo Maresca’s call on wingers to be more present in front of the goal and share the scoring responsibilities. Although Noni Madueke has produced some shots, amounting to an xG of 0.21 (excluding the “goal” which had an xG of 0.97), Chelsea’s wingers contributed to crosses. This is another area where Chelsea are missing a box number 9, who can actually fight and finish those crosses.

But in this game, we saw another defender stepping up and filling in those goal scoring responsibilities. Chelsea’s second goal came from Marc Cucurella intercepting the ball in midfield to launch Cole Palmer. Although he struggled and the attack slowed down a bit, Palmer sent it to Madueke on the wing, who was again isolated. Uncontested, he crossed it in the box for Dewsbury-Hall. He deflected it to find Cucurella, who made an attacking run through the left half-space, positioning himself perfectly to deliver a tight finish.

Trevor Chalobah Shines in his Return to Stamford Bridge

Chalobah’s return show why it was an excellent decision to recall him and an awful one at letting him go on load. It makes you wonder how many goals could Chelsea have avoided with his presence? He made several decisive interventions, contesting Larsen and others who threatened Chelsea’s box. He only lost one aerial and one ground duel, all while misplacing only four passes.

Apart from his goal, oops, sorry, assist, another thing I really loved was seeing him exploiting space when he saw it during build up. Recording two progressive carries and three progressive passes, Chalobah helped the Blues progress the ball in the Wolves’ half and was a stable point during their build-up. This can be beautifully seen looking at Chelsea’s passing network, where we observe not only the amount of passes that involved Trevor but also his collaboration with Palmer.

In his central position, Cole Palmer dropped deep to help during the build up play, and Trevor Chalobah spotted him often and zipped a pass, breaking through the first line of Wolverhampton pressing. This aspect can be observed on the passing network by looking at the xT. No other passing lane generated more threat than the one between Trevor Chalobah and Cole Palmer.

Reece James Feels Like He Never Left

It is truly an admirable thing to miss so much, and then slot perfectly back in. Reece James played 77 minutes before being substituted by Axel Dissasi. In this game, he stuck to a traditional full by role, but provided fluidity and safety in the back line. That was a few decisive tackles where Reece James heavily contested Wolverhampton. But the best part of James’ performance was his fluidity and his progression with the ball. There was a heroic moment at the end of the first half, with Reece James heavily under pressure, but he stuck with the ball, progressed it and forced a foul to keep possession, being composed during Wolves’ dangerous press.

He collaborated well with Dewsbury-Hall when he dropped into the left lower pocket and managed the most progressive passes in the game (9), tied with Matheus Cunha. A much needed presence. Hopefully he will steer clear of injuries and bring stability and fluidity to Chelsea’s back line.

Where is Cole Palmer?

The biggest downside to how Enzo Maresca has set up the team against Wolves is Cole Palmer’s limited influence. Palmer is a player who thrives in the pocket and in the half-space. He needs space and angles to shoot, and although he can create them, it is much more difficult to do so when in a crowded space such as centrally. Also, with Dewsbury-Hall on the right wing, Cole Palmer was forced to drift left, which limits his shooting capabilities as a left-footed player.

Conclusions

It was a great and welcomed performance by the Blues, who are now back in the 4th spot, 2 points ahead of Newcastle. Recalling Trevor Chalobah had an immediate impact on Chelsea on both sides of the pitch. This ends the Blues’ winless streak, after they successfully exploited Wolverhampton’s set piece weaknesses. Mostly in control, Chelsea conceded in the last 15 minutes of the first half, after Wolverhampton increased their pressure and actively contested the build up. Chelsea will travel to Manchester, to meet City in the next round, then back at Stamford Bridge against West Ham, followed by two trips at Brighton in the FA Cup and Premier League.

What did you think of the Blues’ performance against Wolverhampton? Are you happy with Enzo Maresca’s deployed system, even if it limited Cole Palmer? Has Chalobah done enough to become uncontestable at Chelsea? Let’s discuss in the comments and thank you for reading Simply Blues!

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Wolverhampton enters this game after back-to-back 3-0 defeats against Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United. Prior to this game, they sit just above the relegation zone, with the saving grace of having scored two goals more than Ipswich Town.

Tactical Preview: Set Pieces, Dribblers and Goals

There are some key issues in Wolves’ squad this season that Chelsea could aim to exploit. First, Wolverhampton is extremely vulnerable to set pieces. No other team in the Premier League has conceded more goals from set pieces than Wolverhampton, who lead this statistic with 15 goals allowed.

Although Chelsea is not a set-piece powerhouse, they have had some highlights this season, namely Cole Palmer’s iconic free kick against Brighton and Reece James’ equalizer against Bournemouth. The opening goal against Wolverhampton came from a Nicolas Jackson header, who was left unmarked at the far post during a corner kick. While these rare occasions of scoring from set pieces are welcome additions to Chelsea’s goal tally, they are not the team’s most reliable scoring method.

However, there is one key strength that Chelsea has which can be masterfully utilized in this game. If we look at the 6-2 victory, we notice some obvious patterns. All three of Madueke’s goals were identical. Wolverhampton conceded the same type of goal twice from the right wing. Additionally, Joao Felix’s goal came after a Pedro Neto cross, which found him with ample space in the box.

Defending down the wings is an area where Wolverhampton struggles, both against individual players who are capable dribblers and against crosses. Wolves have faced 331 crosses in Premier League matches this season. Chelsea might look to exploit these vulnerabilities through individual skill, aiming to put Noni Madueke or Jadon Sancho in one-on-one situations where they can bypass their opponents, deliver crosses, or draw fouls in dangerous areas.

Offensively, Wolves excel at winning the ball and launching counterattacks, with seven goals coming from such situations. They are highly effective in challenges, successfully reclaiming possession with 256 tackles, ranking them 5th in the Premier League. The Blues, on the other hand, have struggled to defend transitions and have often lost possession in ways that lead to dangerous situations for Robert Sanchez. After all, Chelsea leads the league in conceding penalties, tied for the top spot with Ipswich Town and Wolves.

It will be both hard and important for The Blues to maintain their defensive solidity and not give away the ball cheaply. Rest defense will be important to prevent the Wolves from counterattacking, and it will be a tough challenge, since Romeo Lavia is a doubt for this game.

Team News and Absences

During the pre-game press conference, Enzo Maresca shared an update on injuries for the Wolverhampton game. Here are the main points:

• Cole Palmer is a doubt for this game, as he sustained a kick in the ankle in the first half against Bournemouth. He skipped training on Friday and he will be assessed.

• Levi Colwill, Romeo Lavia and Enzo Fernandez are also doubts for Wolves. Romeo Lavia has seen some action against Bournemouth, but came off after 60 minutes, with Enzo Maresca carefully managing his minutes.

• Trevor Chalobah might be back in the starting XI, since Wesley Fofana and Benoit Badiashile remain absent and Axel Disasi had disappointing performances.

What are the Stakes?

This being the last game of Round 22 of the Premier League, looking at the table, we can see the importance of this game for both teams. For Wolves, three points would start putting some distance between them and the relegation zone. At this moment, they are tied with Ipswich Town at 16 points and they sit just above the relegation zone.

Chelsea meanwhile has fallen off the top 4 positions, with Newcastle sitting one point ahead in 5th spot after a commanding 1-4 loss against Bournemouth. A victory here would bring Chelsea back into the 4th spot, two points ahead of Newcastle and Manchester City.

Predictions

Chelsea are the big favourites here, coming on top in 64.4% of OPTA simulations, while Wolverhampton does so in just 16.8%. Chelsea never lost against Wolverhampton in recent history when playing at Stamford Bridge, but the Wolves’ latest win was a 4-2 victory last season at Molineux.

The game between the two is a high-scoring one, with five out of the last six games ending in over 2.5 goals, but it also is a high intensity and physical game. Four out of the last five encounters ended with over 4.5 yellow cards.

So, expect action, with a possible win for Chelsea, who looks to go back into the Premier League top 4.

Yet the second half tells a different story, where Bournemouth capitalized on mistakes and scored twice. Justin Kluivert dispossessed Romeo Lavia in midfield, which left him ample space to run and set up Semenyo with in Sanchez’s box. Caicedo fouled and Kluivert transformed the penalty, restoring the balance on the scoresheet. In the 66th minute, Bournemouth’s pressure caused Enzo Fernandez to make an uncomfortable pass to Noni Madueke to get out of the first third of the pitch, conceding possession. Then, two passes later from the throw-in, Semenyo was left in a one-on-one situation in the box against Acheampong and his powerful left-footed show beat Sanchez and put the Cherries in the lead.

Chelsea pushed hard in injury time, immensely pressuring Bournemouth’s defense, who gave away a free kick close to the left side of the box. Reece James’ powerful shot to the far post salvaged a point and Maresca’s winless streak extended to five games.

Setting Up Against Bournemouth

Enzo Maresca’s starting lineup against Bournemouth is something that he used before, with Robert Sanchez in goal and a back four comprising Marc Cucurella, Levi Colwill, Josh Acheampong (who got his second Premier League start) and Moises Caicedo as the right full-back. Romeo Lavia and Enzo Fernandez were Chelsea’s two pivots in this game. The idea is, of course, for Moises Caicedo to invert in line with Romeo Lavia and provide that double pivot in front of the remaining back three. Enzo Fernandez would push up on the left side to form the front five, together with Cole Palmer, Jadon Sancho, Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke.

This setup provided Chelsea with stability in midfield, relying on the Lavia-Caicedo pair, while also putting Enzo Fernandez in a position where he could use his creativity and not be a threat when Bournemouth would set up on the counter. And it showed in Fernandez’s performance through the game, as he generated the most chances (7), completed the most passes (49) and accumulated a xA of 0.24.

The only major change from the usual formula we have seen lately was Noni Madueke on the right wing, recently recovered after illness, instead of Pedro Neto.

Dull Clinical Edge - Lack of Efficient Finishing

The first half was perfectly executed in creating chances. Chelsea generated a xG of 1.90 and gained the lead in the 13th minute. Nicolas Jackson squeezed the ball through three opponents, bypassing Bournemouth’s midfield, which left Chelsea in a five-on-four advantage against Bournemouth’s defensive line. Jackson dropped deeper throughout the game, facilitating the build-up and helping The Blues progress through the midfield. Cole Palmer, in the right half-space, made a run cutting inside and Nicolas Jackson timed his pass perfectly to catch him onside. This left Palmer alone against Travers, and tricked him with a faked chip, to finish elegantly into the empty goal.

Jadon Sancho and Noni Madueke also created chances during the first half while providing a masterclass on dribbling. Sancho tricked Bournemouth’s defenders with 4/5 successful dribbles (the most completed dribbles in the game) while Madueke penetrated the box, having seven touches in Bournemouth’s penalty area. While Sancho’s incursions ended with two blocked shots, Madueke produced several cutbacks leading to dangerous chances with an xA of 0.32.

Robert Sanchez and his Trademark Mistake

Of course, it is not a proper Chelsea game until Robert Sanchez makes his characteristic mistake of passing the ball straight to the opponent or making a weak incisive pass that is easily intercepted. In the 37th minute, Sanchez tries to find Cole Palmer dropping on the right wing with a progressive pass but did not spot Kluivert predicting that pass and rushing to cut the lane. He intercepted the pass and penetrated the box. After the unsuccessful cross, Bournemouth scrambled and recovered the ball inside the box and sent it to Kluivert, who was free. Fortunately for Sanchez, the ball hits the woodwork and Chelsea is saved.

Is Nicolas Jackson Regressing?

The first half was a reminder of last season’s Nicolas Jackson. The striker generated the biggest xG of the game from open play (1.11 xG) but did not score. He had huge chances in the 33rd and 44th minutes, but his shots did not hit the target, with the ball bouncing before the shot, causing him to strike improperly. Another huge chance came just after Bournemouth hitting the woodwork, with Chelsea on the counter. Unfortunately, he was not much luckier than Kluivert and he hit the same right post with his shot.

At the start of the season, Jackson was much more clinical, and scored in line if not even higher than his xG suggested. Right now, Jackson is the 9th best goalscorer in the Premier League, with 9 goals, not a disappointing performance at all. His xG suggests 10.79 predicted goals until this point, which means he is slightly underperforming. Of course, xG stabilizes over time, and Nicolas Jackson still has plenty of chances to over-perform or score in line with expectations. Hopefully, we will see more performances similar to the beginning of the season than to this game, and Jackson will continue to grow more clinical over time. The improvement is there, but I would love to see even more.

Chelsea Losing Stability in the Second Half

The second half brought a shift in dynamics with Chelsea losing their stability and granting Bournemouth more chances and opportunities. While Bournemouth had only one shot in the entire first half, that number grew to six by the end of the game. Just after the break, Romeo Lavia was dispossessed in midfield by Kluivert, who started Bournemouth’s counter.

Levi Colwill took Kluivert in his marking while Ouattara’s clever run drew Acheampong towards the centre of the box, leaving the left side empty for Semenyo to penetrate the box and be found by Kluivert. Moises Caicedo, who was slightly outpaced and unable to catch up, fouled from behind giving Bournemouth the penalty.

Romeo Lavia was substituted by Reece James, which shuffled a bit of Chelsea’s structure by putting Moises Caicedo back in midfield, with James taking the full-back role. The substitution could not be avoided, as Lavia was struggling to keep up, which is normal when coming back from injury. The problem is that Moises Caicedo would mostly remain the sole player responsible for covering Chelsea’s midfield, which creates loads of gaps to be exploited.

Bournemouth’s second goal shows just that. Following the throw-in, Christie found himself in midfield with minimal pressure, enabling him to deliver a precise pass that set up Semenyo for a one-on-one against Acheampong. Nicolas Jackson dropped to chase him, but Enzo Fernandez could have applied some pressure on Christie. But Fernandez stood as the pass went through, and Semenyo smashed it in.

The Yellow Card Controversy

The 54th minute saw the most controversial moment of the game, with Chelsea set to begin their counter attack through Robert Sanchez. Marc Cucurella sprints into space on the left wing, and is halted by David Brooks, who extends his arm and hits Cucurella’s face, dropping him to the ground. John Brooks is called to the side of the pitch, to review the action from the VAR room. After a minute of looking at the footage, he shows David Brooks the yellow card.

This decision was heavily criticized by both fans, staff and Enzo Maresca, since there was no intention of playing the ball (which was not even in play at the moment) and the gesture looked very deliberate aiming to stop Cucurella from getting the ball and starting the counter. The Premier League Match Centre explained the decision on Twitter.

Reece James’ Free Kick Brings a Point

Chelsea put on a lot of pressure at the end of the second half, trying to find the equalizer but with no success. Three minutes into injury time Christie takes Joao Felix down, at the right side edge of the box. Cole Palmer and Reece James stepped up to take the free kick, and honestly, I thought Palmer would shoot, forgetting that Reece James is a set-piece specialist. But since I haven’t seen him for so long, can you actually blame me for believing so?

James delivered and smashed it in with a powerful low shot that rattle the inside of the far post to end the game level and get a point.

Conclusions

Chelsea did not get more from this game, not because of a lack of chances created but a lack of finishing in front of the goal. It was a solid game by the Blues, but they failed to close the game when they had control in the first half and paid the price. Chelsea’s winless streak extends to five games in what could have been the perfect return to form. The good thing to take from this game is that Chelsea was creative, generated chances and controlled the game, especially in the first half.

In the post-match press conference, Enzo Maresca said: “I’m always worried, but I’m more worried when we don’t create and we don’t play well.”

For Bournemouth, things are looking well, as The Cherries were not defeated in their last 7 consecutive Premier League games, and are sitting in the 7th spot, just 3 points behind us. They come off a home win against Everton, where substitute David Brooks scored 7 minutes after he came on the pitch and Pickford kept the deficit from growing with an impressive 2.02 goals prevented out of 7 saves.

Breaking Down the Block

One thing we struggled with this season is breaking down stubborn teams that sit in a block. Bournemouth is a defensively solid team that will probably concede possession and aim to hit with quick and direct attacks. So far they conceded just 23 times, giving them the 5th best defensive record in the league, although we sit closely with 24 goals against.

Although Enzo Maresca excels at keeping the ball, one of Chelsea’s major strengths is thriving in chaos. Chelsea is lethal on the counter, with Cole Palmer, Nicolas Jackson, Pedro Neto and Jadon Sancho running like a wolf pack, making Chelsea the 4th best team on goals scored with counter attacks. Yet when we faced teams that are defensively solid, we struggled to create chances and break them down.

Bournemouth is known for their high intensity pressing, with 11.9 passes per defensive action, so Chelsea needs to focus on build-up play and avoid mistakes. If Bournemouth sits deep and does not contest The Blues, then individual creativity and a more dynamic team will be needed to break down the block, and hopefully Chelsea can find that in this game.

Striking Issues for the Cherries

Although Bournemouth is generating plenty of chances, they are the most wasteful team so far. Looking at the sheer number, they generated 42.02 xG, more than Arsenal or Manchester City, but they only scored 30 goals, giving them a whopping -12.02 xG difference. Yet there is one more problem that adds to that. Both Evanilson and Enes Ünal are out for this game, leaving Bournemouth without an established striker. Even though Dango Outtara and Semenyo both play in the striker position for their countries, making them in charge would leave Bournemouth without proper wingers.

Caution in the Air

The Cherries often focus their attacks on the left wing, and rely on crosses, averaging 45 crosses and 15.1 aerial duels won per game, which makes them an aerial threat. This is an area where Chelsea struggles a bit, having just 9.8 aerial duels won per game and being one of the most vulnerable teams in the air. Set pieces are no laughing matter either, with Bournemouth scoring 7 times from set pieces this season. Extra care will be required on corners and not giving away fouls in dangerous positions.

Team Injuries and Updates

• Wesley Fofana – Hamstring injury

• Benoit Badiashile – Thigh injury

• Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall – Muscle injury

• Omari Kellyman – Hamstring injury

• Mykhaylo Mudryk – Suspended

Reece James and Romeo Lavia have recently returned from hamstring injuries, each playing 45 minutes in the FA Cup match against Morecambe. Manager Enzo Maresca confirmed their availability for the upcoming game but emphasized the need for careful management due to their delicate situations. Noni Madueke, who was out due to illness is now fully recovered and available.

Predictions and Trends

Chelsea has not lost in 7 consecutive games against Bournemouth and has won the last 3 encounters at Stamford Bridge. Yet, Bournemouth is in excellent form and it will be a tough game for Enzo Maresca and the team.

The OPTA Simulations give Chelsea a 58.3% chance to come on top, while Bournemouth wins in 20.6% of simulations. Both teams are on a streak. Chelsea is without a win, Bournemouth without a loss. It will be a tough game, where we will see which team breaks their streak and how.