Chelsea vs Bournemouth Preview - Will the Blue Break the Winless Streak?
Round 21 of the Premier League brings two teams that are both on a streak. Which one will continue theirs?
The Blues’ winless streak unfortunately continued after an underwhelming 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace with Cole Palmer’s goal in the 14th minute nullified by Jean-Philippe Mateta with only a few minutes left on the clock. After a wonderful run, where Chelsea was considered a title contender, we are now sitting in the 4th spot, 10 points away from Liverpool, who leads the standings with 46 points.
For Bournemouth, things are looking well, as The Cherries were not defeated in their last 7 consecutive Premier League games, and are sitting in the 7th spot, just 3 points behind us. They come off a home win against Everton, where substitute David Brooks scored 7 minutes after he came on the pitch and Pickford kept the deficit from growing with an impressive 2.02 goals prevented out of 7 saves.
Breaking Down the Block
One thing we struggled with this season is breaking down stubborn teams that sit in a block. Bournemouth is a defensively solid team that will probably concede possession and aim to hit with quick and direct attacks. So far they conceded just 23 times, giving them the 5th best defensive record in the league, although we sit closely with 24 goals against.
Although Enzo Maresca excels at keeping the ball, one of Chelsea’s major strengths is thriving in chaos. Chelsea is lethal on the counter, with Cole Palmer, Nicolas Jackson, Pedro Neto and Jadon Sancho running like a wolf pack, making Chelsea the 4th best team on goals scored with counter attacks. Yet when we faced teams that are defensively solid, we struggled to create chances and break them down.
Bournemouth is known for their high intensity pressing, with 11.9 passes per defensive action, so Chelsea needs to focus on build-up play and avoid mistakes. If Bournemouth sits deep and does not contest The Blues, then individual creativity and a more dynamic team will be needed to break down the block, and hopefully Chelsea can find that in this game.
Striking Issues for the Cherries
Although Bournemouth is generating plenty of chances, they are the most wasteful team so far. Looking at the sheer number, they generated 42.02 xG, more than Arsenal or Manchester City, but they only scored 30 goals, giving them a whopping -12.02 xG difference. Yet there is one more problem that adds to that. Both Evanilson and Enes Ünal are out for this game, leaving Bournemouth without an established striker. Even though Dango Outtara and Semenyo both play in the striker position for their countries, making them in charge would leave Bournemouth without proper wingers.
Caution in the Air
The Cherries often focus their attacks on the left wing, and rely on crosses, averaging 45 crosses and 15.1 aerial duels won per game, which makes them an aerial threat. This is an area where Chelsea struggles a bit, having just 9.8 aerial duels won per game and being one of the most vulnerable teams in the air. Set pieces are no laughing matter either, with Bournemouth scoring 7 times from set pieces this season. Extra care will be required on corners and not giving away fouls in dangerous positions.
Team Injuries and Updates
Wesley Fofana – Hamstring injury
Benoit Badiashile – Thigh injury
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall – Muscle injury
Omari Kellyman – Hamstring injury
Mykhaylo Mudryk – Suspended
Reece James and Romeo Lavia have recently returned from hamstring injuries, each playing 45 minutes in the FA Cup match against Morecambe. Manager Enzo Maresca confirmed their availability for the upcoming game but emphasized the need for careful management due to their delicate situations. Noni Madueke, who was out due to illness is now fully recovered and available.
Predictions and Trends
Chelsea has not lost in 7 consecutive games against Bournemouth and has won the last 3 encounters at Stamford Bridge. Yet, Bournemouth is in excellent form and it will be a tough game for Enzo Maresca and the team.
The OPTA Simulations give Chelsea a 58.3% chance to come on top, while Bournemouth wins in 20.6% of simulations. Both teams are on a streak. Chelsea is without a win, Bournemouth without a loss. It will be a tough game, where we will see which team breaks their streak and how.